ENSYSTRA

We are using a Decision Quality and Decision Analysis Framework to assess and prioritize investments for energy system infrastructure needs. Initially we relied upon Energy System Modelling, but we could see there were issues to compare and select the correct investment options. We therefore embarked on strategic decisions through scenario thinking.

This allows us to frame the decision problem correctly, ensure all energy system models are built and used correctly, uncertainties and ambiguities regarding different possible futures and conflict in goals are addressed and we do not just assume the issues and uncertainties or ambiguities away.

Finally, we addressed preferences and biases of subject matter experts and ensured we captured all inputs by developing ranges of values depending on the various future scenarios so that we could assess, analyse and report these through project portfolio management methods to ensure that we have informed the decision/policy maker properly.

The problem is, while Decision Analysis has existed as a science for a long time, it was only established as a professional society and discipline 30-40 years ago. But fundamentally it is used to Formulate. Evaluate and Appraise the situation on an interactive and iterative basis before a decision is made following the cycle steps (Howard et al, Foundations of Decision Analysis, 2016):

• From initial situation
• Structure the problem
• Apply Deterministic Analysis
• Then use Probabilistic Analysis
• Finally Appraisal

We can iterate based on Value of (Information, Flexibility or Control) needs and requirements to help determine or improve the State of Knowledge/Degree of Belief and to understand and manage Uncertainty and Ambiguity if these affect our ability to make a decisions as required. But an important consideration here is to check the quality of the decision we are making and the improvement in our ability to make good decisions. This governance process is based on a value chain methodology (Spetzler et al, Decision Quality, 2016).

• Appropriate Frame 
• Clear Values and Trade-offs
• Creative Alternatives
• Relevant and reliable Information
• Sound reasoning
• Commitment to action

There are many different methods and approaches, and we need to tie down terminology and processes or methodologies so that it can be applied correctly depending on the problem and situation at hand. For the energy system in transition application we have used the above framework and governance process in conjunction with Value Focused Thinking (Keeney, 1992) to help with address multiple: objectives, decision criteria and values used to identify opportunities and alternatives. There are many tools and techniques available to implement the methodologies, frameworks and governance structures above and we need to capture these and explain how and where we should apply these in order to help society as a whole engage and get the benefit of this science and approach. This can be used by all sectors and disciplines - so we would like to help get this into the public domain by setting up and formulating and facilitating: Technical Committees, Working Groups and Special Interest Groups and Subject Matter Expert forums to work on the standardisation. They would really like HSbooster help, steer and advice on these matters.

Reason for applying to HSbooster.eu services

They know this is a great tool and science, but they are struggling with traction and correct application. They think that a standard will help clear up some misconceptions and implementation issues. They need help to understand the standardisation process, how they can arrange and contribute to improve the use and science concerning decision analysis. If possible assistance to refine the gap analysis and how to focus and deliver our efforts. They have an international society and many users in the corporate, public, private, educational and personal domain and they need help to decide on a standardisation structure. How they will set up workflow and contribute to standardisation activities and to promote the results so that all can benefit from this science and philosophy.